MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Adrift on an Angry Sea of Red

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Not to be confused with the Red Sea, which is an actual place, the sea of red in the title is merely a reference to general bias toward weakness in bond markets for however long you care to look back in time (provided you don't look back more than 2 years). Most pressing is the time frame between now and the end of August which has seen 10yr yields rise nearly 20bps. That makes the past 3 weeks the worst selling spree since April, and introduces yet another attempt to break free from the gravitational pull of 10yr yields at 3%. Bond bulls hope to see gravity kick in at the teal line in the following chart. The manner in which it's been approached suggests we shouldn't take such support for granted, but neither can the technical significance of the 3% zone (3.015% specifically, over...(read more)

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