MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Filling The Post-Fed Breakout Gap

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

With 10yr yields beginning the day well over 2.50% and with 2.55% being the line in the sand marking the breakout from the sideways range at the beginning of 2019, it's fair to say that bonds have more or less "filled the gap." This is a common conclusion/prediction among market technicians when a security makes a big move. In the most classic sense, the set-up requires a day of trading to have begun far enough away from the previous day's trading to create a "gap" in the chart. This may have made more sense before overnight/futures trading became so prevalent, but these days, it's pretty tough for markets to create a gap when they're only ever offline for an hour or two per day. It's more useful to consider gaps as being the trading range that is quickly...(read more)

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