MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Gearing Up For Unfriendly Fed

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

It would be a tad dramatic to say that rates are at a crossroads as we head into the end of September, unless there's any additional weakness this week. That's because any additional weakness will bring yields closer to breaking 2018's previous high of 3.128% set on May 18th, 2018. When rates break a long-term high, there's always a risk that the previous ceiling will act as technical line in the sand. The natural fear would be for such a breakout to prompt additional momentum toward even higher rates . That's always a possibility, but it's one of two. The other possibility--in the event of additional weakness this week, of course--is that yields would simply be stretching the boundaries of existing ranges or perhaps just extending an upwardly-sloped trend. In he case...(read more)

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