MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Making Case For Friendly Bounce But Data Could Disagree

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Here's a quick recap of the past year or so. Bond yields were near long-term highs in the first part of 2018 following the passage of the tax bill and generally strong economic data. Rates surged to even higher long term highs in October and November (ongoing improvement in US econ data, hawkish Fed, rotation into stocks). At that point, a combination of European/Chinese weakness, a potentially overly-hawkish Fed, and high rates sent the stock market into a tailspin. Bonds benefited in a big way. After dropping 70bps in less than 2 months , 10yr yields took a breather in the 2.55-2.80 range for the next two months. We turned our attention to the March 20th Fed announcement to cause the next big move. It did. In not so many words, the Fed was surprisingly helpful to bonds. They also mentioned...(read more)

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