MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Waving Long Goodbye to Trend, Hoping For Friendly Fed

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just past, bonds continued moving higher in yield, adding distance between themselves and the unexpectedly low levels seen during the trade war rally. Actually, I'll stop myself there because if I were to read what I just wrote, I might yell at the screen a bit. Reason being: it's sort of stupid to say "unexpectedly low levels." We shouldn't ever really EXPECT bond market levels to be in any particular place. They will go wherever they're going to go, and that's exactly where we should expect them to be. As soon as too many traders start expecting bonds to do one thing, they become vulnerable to a move in the other direction. So let's just say the timing and the pace of the bond market rally in the first few weeks of May ran counter to prevailing...(read more)

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