MBS Day Ahead: Fed Announcement vs TED Announcement

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Although the 10am ISM Manufacturing Report can definitely have an impact on bonds today, The 2pm FED Announcement and 2:30pm press conference is the biggest to-do. There's effectively no chance that the Fed will make any change to its target interest rate, nor is it in a position to change any of its policies. But, given the improvement/stabilization in global economic data since their last meeting, Fed officials may have changed the verbiage of the announcement. If we see the Fed paying lots of attention to such things (i.e. they acknowledge that European/Chinese risk factors are subsiding) markets are likely to assume that means some increase in rate hike potential at some point in the next 6-9 months. The counterbalance would be the continued intractability of inflation. If we see the...(read more)

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