MBS Day Ahead: October's First Message to Bonds: No Easy Victories

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Believe it or not, any given month stands a better than average chance to convey some sort of theme for bond trading. In other words, there tends to be a discernible bias higher, lower, or sideways. It's uncommon to see all 3 biases in the same month. August and September were quite clear in this regard. August was good. September was bad. Now that September is over, we're well within our rights to wonder if October will keep the bad times rolling or offer reprieve. Given that yields had been very near long-term highs and that momentum indicators suggested a potentially friendly bounce, it's fair to hope for a friendly October. Unfortunately, if the first few hours of the month are any indication, we may find life isn't always fair. The saving grace so far is that the weakness...(read more)

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