MBS Day Ahead: Selling Obviously Overdone, And That's a Problem

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

If you didn't catch it, and want to get caught up with yesterday's big move, this tweet has several links that should bring you thoroughly up to speed: https://twitter.com/MG_MBS/status/1047627670987526145 Moving on to today, I have a saying that I've only dusted off a few times over the past 10 years. I was thinking about using it today: "The biggest risk to this analysis is how obvious it is." This is analogous to a scene in any given movie where someone says "this feels like a trap" or "it's quiet... almost too quiet." In market terms, it has to do with the fact that widespread agreement on what SHOULD happen next often results in the opposite thing happening. After all, if every trader made the same trade, none of them would make money. So it...(read more)

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