MBS Day Ahead: Short Week Marks Transition Into Riskier Territory

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

For the bond market, September and/or October often see bigger moves than the preceding summertime months. There are notable exceptions, to be sure, but in general, the Fall tends to do a few things in a particular order of prevalence. More Prevalent: 1. Push yields back in the other direction if they've been moving one direction for most of the year 2. Push yields quickly higher or lower if they've been consolidating for more than a few months Less Prevalent: 1. Add emphasis to an existing rally or sell-off 2. Continue a consolidation for several more months. 2018 is definitely a year that sets up the Fall months with an existing consolidation. That can be seen in the converging yellow lines in the following chart. The chart also shows slow stochastics at the bottom--a momentum indicator...(read more)

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