MBS Day Ahead: The Readiness is All

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

At this point, there's nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today's NFP data. Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss. This time it's 3.20-3.24%-ish. The specific level really doesn't matter (sorry Gundlach). It's just another visit to long-term highs that will either become a ceiling for some indeterminate time frame or it will serve as a temporary staging area for an even more brutal move higher. Is there a chance that we've overhyped today's potential impacts? Yes and no. It's true that the range of potential outcomes is big enough to deserve hype. But as we've seen so many times, "potential" is often wasted. Big impacts are often delayed. Traders may keep something in reserve for next week's CPI data. In general though...(read more)

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