MBS Day Ahead: Where We Were, Where We Are, And Where We Might Be Going

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery that followed, but also from the ongoing blast of Fed bond buying and ultra-low rate policy During that time, economic data only ever mattered inasmuch as it affected the Fed's accommodation game plan. Even then, markets were 10 times more willing to trade the changes in the Fed's gameplan than they were the data itself. The 2013 taper tantrum is a great example (the data all but guaranteed a tapering announcement as of May 3rd, but markets didn't even begin to trade that notion until a May 10th Hilsenrath article suggested the Fed was getting ready to taper. And it wasn't until Bernanke mentioned it on May 22nd that things...(read more)

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