MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expected. The resulting selling spree was thus fairly logical. 10yr yields nearly hit 2.62% before it was over. It definitely could have been worse. I think part of the resilience is explained by the extent to which bonds have moved to price-in economic stability (or even a rebound) in China. Such a thing would definitely be worth higher yields at home, and the last week of Chinese data keeps the risk on the table. There wasn't really a big enough reason to justify the size of Friday's bond sell-off. Combine that with today's sell-off seemingly being too light and we come to the conclusion that it's been one big move leading up to today...(read more)

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