MBS RECAP: Bonds Keep Tanking, Despite NFP Miss

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

The jobs report may have missed the mark in terms of payrolls, but average hourly earnings put in its 4th straight month holding 2.8% (y/y) or higher. Before these past 4 months, 2.8% was a unicorn we saw on only a few brief occasions before it ran back into the woods. Bottom line: wage growth can't merely be eye-rolled away by econo-bears. Believe me, I'd be the FIRST in line. 4 months of 2.8%+ means the odds increase that inflation will run a bit hotter. MBS Live hall-of-famer SK hit the nail on the head with this comment today: Hear hear! It is indeed striking that Powell's press conference comment (last week) about the Fed not seeing a risk of an upside inflation surprise was not only poorly translated by newswire writers, but also relied upon by traders as inspiration for a...(read more)

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