MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Try to Maintain Positive Trend

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the week just past, bonds threw a vicious head-fake. After 2 weeks spent moving lower inside a well-established trend, yields looked to be breaking out. This had the seductive benefit of making perfect sense in the context of the rally. After all, the rally was based on a temporary increase in trade war headlines that began with Trump's tweet about new tariffs on Chinese goods 3 weeks ago. As those headlines died down, so too should the bond gains. Or so markets thought... A combination of other factors (isn't it always?) made for a paradoxical return to the trend by Thursday. These included British political upheaval, ongoing trade concerns, massive stock selling, exceptionally weak PMI data, and positional imbalances in bonds. The week ended with yields trading perfectly flat in...(read more)

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