MBS Week Ahead: Data Returns While Trade Drama Backdrop Persists

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the week just past, markets were slavishly tuned-in to headlines and developments surrounding US/China trade relations . This generally resulted in bond gains and stock losses. The week, as a whole, represented an unexpected break from the trend of containment seen in the previous week (noted in chart below). Now, the current week begins with the same sort of breakout. But why are these breakouts 'unexpected?' To be fair, they weren't! They were neither expected nor unexpected. Any other stance would be ignorant of the market's most important rule: anything can happen tomorrow and everything we know about what might happen is already priced-in today. It's more fair to say the breakouts were "counter-trend." At the end of last week, the base case was for the...(read more)

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