MBS Week Ahead: Room For Improvement (or Weakness) Depending on Big Data Lineup

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

This is a very big week in terms of economic data and its relationship with bond market trading levels. In a nutshell, yields dropped sharply into a new, lower range in late March. Gains were then erased at a medium-fast pace in April, but rates found a ceiling just before re-entering 2019's previous range. We've had just over a week of sideways-to-slightly-stronger trading since holding that line, but we're still close enough to the ceiling to worry that it might be broken. If there is a lineup of economic data with the power to break the ceiling in bonds, it's this week's. That said, data usually cuts both ways. If it happened to be much weaker than expected, that could help us break below nearby technical levels. In terms of 10yr yields, the most notable would be 2.47...(read more)

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